Frontex and European Security: Aija Kalnaja’s vision

Amid growing geopolitical tensions, the instrumentalisation of migration, hybrid threats and rapid technological transformation, European security is entering a new era. As Deputy Executive Director for Capabilities at Frontex, Aija Kalnaja advocates for a comprehensive approach to contemporary crises, built on anticipation, European cooperation and innovation.

BY LOU CUSMAR

©frontex

A new geopolitical landscape

Hybrid threats now occupy a central place in European strategic debates. Yet Aija Kalnaja refuses to see them as a new phenomenon. “Hybrid threats have been around for decades,” she recalls. “We should not compartmentalise them,” she continues. Beyond the nature of the actions themselves, what matters most is their strategic objective: creating divisions within the European Union, weakening Member States or undermining the security of the continent. This reflection comes at a time when security, energy and technological challenges are becoming increasingly interconnected. Aija Kalnaja regularly refers to the report published in 2024 by Mario Draghi on European competitiveness, which identifies three essential pillars for the continent’s future prosperity: energy, security and innovation. At the heart of these tensions, Europe nevertheless continues to exert a unique power of attraction. “The European Union remains a dream,” she confides. It is precisely this attractiveness that continues to fuel migratory flows towards the continent — but which can also be exploited by hostile actors, especially as the effects of climate change are bound to intensify migration waves in the years ahead. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that more than one billion people could be affected by climate displacement by 2050.

Frontex: border management gaining momentum

“Since 2014, we have learned a great deal. First and foremost, that only unity allows us to effectively secure borders. We must work through inter-agency cooperation, through a ‘Team Europe’ approach, but also with partner countries located at the borders or outside the European Union. Building trust-based relationships with these states is essential. The European Union now understands that migration must be addressed in all its complexity: in countries of origin, transit countries, at the borders, but also through asylum and return procedures. Once migration reaches the border, it is already an established reality,” shares Aija Kalnaja. She adds: “Together with Member States, we are also developing contingency plans in the event of massive influxes. This relies heavily on intelligence and situational awareness. More than ever, it is essential to anticipate developments, analyse potential flows and prepare to manage them.” “No Member State can handle this type of crisis alone,” stresses Aija Kalnaja. In this context, the agency increasingly relies on a “Team Europe” approach based on cooperation between Member States, European institutions and international partners. This cooperative logic also reflects a deeper transformation of European security. “The response can no longer be solely national or strictly operational. It must combine political analysis, intelligence, inter-agency coordination and rapid reaction capabilities,” continues the agency’s Deputy Executive Director. A sign that cooperation — particularly with countries outside the European Union — is bearing fruit: in 2025, the agency detected 178,000 irregular border crossings at the EU’s external borders, representing a 26% decrease compared to 2024. Only the Western Mediterranean route continued to record rising figures.

The indispensable role of technology

In this new security equation, technology plays a central role. “Without technology, it would be extremely difficult to carry out our work today,” underlines Aija Kalnaja. Aerial surveillance, maritime drones, satellite capabilities, biometrics and underwater systems are gradually turning border management into a multi-domain environment where data and sensors play a decisive role. Drones have already become essential tools for land and maritime surveillance, while space technologies are opening new perspectives in terms of situational awareness and crisis anticipation. Frontex is also exploring underwater surveillance capabilities to respond to evolving criminal methods, particularly the use of submersibles. “This is not just about creating new technological solutions, but also about integrating what we already have,” warns Aija Kalnaja. She adds: “This technological expansion is not intended to replace humans with machines, but to provide teams operating in the field with a faster and more accurate understanding of the situation. At a time when migration routes are evolving, criminal networks are adapting their methods and certain actors are exploiting European vulnerabilities, situational awareness becomes a decisive advantage.”

Women in security: you belong here

Initially destined for a scientific career after studying chemistry, Aija Kalnaja ultimately joined the police almost by chance, recruited from university for her English-language skills at a time when institutions were looking for more highly educated profiles. In a historically male-dominated sector, she now strongly advocates for mixed teams within security professions. “There is no society composed only of men or only of women. Why should security function that way?” she asks. More broadly, the Deputy Executive Director of Frontex observes that many women still hesitate to apply for leadership positions. “I see absolutely brilliant women who still doubt their legitimacy,” she notes, before adding: “Women need to believe in themselves, dare to try and not be afraid to take on higher responsibilities. But one thing is important: no woman wants a position simply because she is a woman. Everyone wants to be recognised for their merit and their skills. Women can be excellent leaders, and we need more female leadership.” “Leadership has no gender,” concludes Aija Kalnaja.